Expanded from Discord comments including some contribution from members of the Open Source Defense discord.
This is a work of hypothetical speculation.
Currently, in the USA, the militia legally consists of the National Guard, which is a fraction of a percent of the population, and the “Unorganized Militia”, which is a nonentity, or rather merely a recruiting category for the military, consisting of men of military age who are not members of the National Guard. Obviously, this is a far cry from a grassroots national citizens’ militia that was equivalent to “the people” and which was seen as a challenge against and an alternative to the threatening shadow of a national standing army. Not very many people take the idea of re-establishing the general citizens’ militia very seriously. Those who do are dissidents at best and, frankly, cranks at worst.
To be realistic, the tendency for modern war (even at a low intensity) to be heavily influenced by expensive technological equipment, complex and self-directed maneuvers that require a high standard of training, and machinery such as armor and aircraft that have financial and logistical footprints of many people mean that the situation is very different from in the late 17th century. One often sees this idea displayed in a ridiculously exaggerated form justifying a certain form of “liberal-democratic bloodlust”, in which various left-leaning figures in the USA claim that the American national military, an entity they did not build and usually do not understand, could effortlessly and quickly stomp flat any right-leaning popular uprising or secessionist movement in the USA with few casualties or economic losses. This sometimes attains to the grotesque fantasy of the federal government killing tens of millions of rebellious American citizens in a thermonuclear bombardment. Such ideas are clearly as absurd as they are morally repugnant, and additionally while the bureaucratic state is one way to manage large expenses and group assets needed for anything resembling modern war, it is not the only way to do so. (Much has been written on the topic by anarchists right-wing and left-wing, some of which even makes sense.)
As a dissident, I think that the idea of a re-established American militia deserves study, especially given the present seemingly unstoppable state of decay in the national government and its infrastructure and capabilities. Therefore, I have done a short, very casual study of what a futuristic American militia growing out of a recognizably-modern society might look like from the perspective of force size. To be clear, I am thinking of a grassroots / general service national militia, not the much-maligned voluntary associations of private citizens which sometimes represent themselves as being elements of the Unorganized Militia.
Realistically, we are not going to get away with an “all able bodied military-age male citizens” call in the 21st-century-so-far. The contemporary American citizenry are are just too disengaged, the society is too urbanized (i.e. even the raw basics of non-military fieldcraft and outdoor life must be taught), and a fair amount of training will be needed to get past the basic issues. Additionally, the historical militia, even in the period when it was active, was simply never very combat-effective for longer than the shortest actions, because militiamen would eventually need to return to their homes and everyday jobs. Realistically, this is going to need to be an at least somewhat self-selected force.
In The Federalist #46 (1788), James Madison (who was on the side in favor of the Constitution and a strong federal government, and believed that the decentralization he supported, including a militia, would provide adequate checks and balances) talks about a standing military of 30K troops, which would be 1% of the population of American citizens, and a militia of a little under 500K, which is most military-aged citizen men. The USA did not have a navy at this time, but before and after this period (in which we suffered problems with piracy), the personnel strength of the navy was about 0.05% of the citizen population, or 1.5K. At this time the population of the USA was roughly 3.7 million (though this was thought to be an undercount) of which about 18 percent were slaves, for about an even 3 million citizens.
James Madison seemed to think that 1% of the total population in the army was a reasonable amount for a country to support in this time period. Modern industrial states can pull off a significantly greater number in wartime emergencies even short of utter desperation, for example, in late WWII the USA had about 5.7% of its population (8.7mil) in the ground combat branches (Army and Marines), plus the navy which was also of considerable size. The number of military-aged citizens (male and female) was approximately 40% of the citizen population, giving us a militia “utilization factor” of about 83% of all military-aged citizen men.
As such, we can characterize the conceptual military strength for 1788.
James Madison’s Numbers: 1% regular army, ~0.05% naval, 16.6% militia.
There were no modern police as we know them at that time, and I cannot find any numbers for these. It appears that any significant numbers of them emerged organically from the people in a similar manner to the militia, so I am not including them.
The modern USA is a very , very different place, and has a population nearly 300 times as large (and, mercifully, slavery has been extirpated from the country and there is no vast, utterly subjugated caste. It is somewhat ironic that today the USA has 444K National Guard total. The Army and USMC together are 629K, while the Air Force and Navy are 670K. The Space Force is military only in name and function, not in character or capabilities as commonly understood, so I am not counting them. Additionally, these numbers are active duty only.
Law enforcement officers are not military, but they are a force and a body of men under arms, so they should be counted. There are about 700K LEOs in the USA today, plus 42K Coast Guard (which are considered military in some cases, but generally lack the heavy armaments of the Navy and are best known for their law enforcement role).
The population that goes with these numbers is 336 million. This includes resident non-citizens and illegal aliens; however, I have not excluded these people as they do not represent a totally marginalized or subjugated caste as slaves did historically. Today’s military-age population, interestingly enough, is also just about 40 percent, though far more people are older rather than younger. In modern times with longer life expectancy and better health the 45 to 54 block probably can be considered relevant in some marginal roles, but I am not counting them. Therefore, that gives us the modern US force sizes.
Modern USA: 0.19% regular army, 0.20% naval/air, 0.21% law enforcement, 0.13% National Guard, no militia. Reserves add 0.32%.
That isn’t even 1%, although it was bigger before the fall of the Soviet Union and during larger wars. Also, the naval / air forces have much larger personnel strengths and professional law enforcement is now an entity unto their own. Note that the USA is currently struggling to recruit. Additionally, while the USA now has only allies as neighbors and a position defended by the oceans, it also is a globally interventionist force, even an imperialist one, and not merely on a naval basis.
A note: My generic “military age” statistics are from 15 to 44, since for some reason statistics that cut on at 18 are unavailable. While we do not like to consider it, people ages 15 to 17 are realistically militarily relevant especially in desperate situations. I have estimated about 37% of Americans today actually being 18 through 44, and my future militia numbers are based on this.
Now, let’s consider what a hypothetical foreseeable-future American grassroots militia might look like, considering the changes in society and culture — including that some women will presumably be part of it, and that it is very unlikely to be an actual majority of all people theoretically eligible even if it is a large fraction compared to the present-day professional military and “part-time professional” National Guard. All of my estimates will use the present American population to allow comparisons with today.
Let’s say 2/3 of women are categorically not interested (only a small percentage of combat arms roles are filled by women in the modern military) and then let’s say that only 1/4 of people left after that are interested in militia service — that gets us 20.7mil out of 125mil eligible. Let’s then say only 80% of those actually serve, which is a bit lower than James Madison’s “utilization factor”. This leads us to:
Hypothetical militia: 16.5 mil, 4.9%
Some notable features of this:
- It is very close to the estimated number of Americans who currently own at least one AR-15.
- It is a fair margin larger than the largest national military right now (the Chinese People’s Liberation Army), though large countries in wartime have fielded larger armies. However, especially without logistical support and society-wide economic efforts, a large fraction of this force cannot mobilize for any significant period.
Now, let’s imagine a future USA which has gone through some social and governmental changes that “draw down” the size and budget of the bureaucratic national and state governments, including the regular military, and in which the militia is significantly more normalized and taken more seriously in national military planning. 1/6 of eligible women and 1/2 of eligible men are interested in militia service; once again the utilization factor is 80%. The USA is still a major naval power and still has a potent national military.
Imagined Post-Drawdown USA: 0.1% regular army, 0.15 naval/air, 0.1% law enforcement, 0.17% National Guard / professional militia cadre, 9.9% militia (33.3mil)
In this case, the Navy is about the same size, the Air Force, Army/USMC and professional Law Enforcement have shrunk significantly, the National Guard has been expanded and is being used as cadre for the militia, and the militia is rather closer to James Madison’s concept. This is a society that is recognizable to us in many ways, but also one that is a lot more decentralized (probably also in ways that have nothing to do with violence) and in which the everyday work of guarding the society is done much more by ordinary people rather than small, often-insular cliques of professionals or “cossackified” segments of society.
It should of course be noted that here the Navy, the oceans, and the general modern untenability of wars of conquest are a big part of what is protecting the USA from foreign invasion.
The earlier example could still have a somewhat insular militia. In this case, it’s enough of society that unless intensely self-selected (and this society would probably have mandates or incentives for people from all walks of life to serve in the militia) it would be a lot less insular.
Now, let’s consider something very different from what we know today, that doesn’t have a typical standing army at all. Instead, we have segments of the militia flowing upward towards higher training and operational tempo, plus a state military logistics corps that provides the logistics needed for a modern military. This system has a militia as large as James Madison’s.
Imagined Decentralized USA: 13% general militia, 3% militia select levy, 0.025% stipended deputies, 0.2% Militia Stipended Special Forces, 0.2% National Military Logistics Corps
“General militia” are the basic grassroots all-military-age-men-with-personally-owned-weapons citizens’ militia. The select levy are a bit intermediate between that and the National Guard; they are a fraction of the general militia with more dedication, better training, and better equipment, however, operationally they move with the general militia. Stipended deputies are full-time sheriffs’ deputies; their small numbers mean that they are picking up criminals, responding to serious situations, and serving warrants, not solving everyone’s problems. Militia Stipended Special Forces include SOF but are not just that, they are full-time soldiers who are still part of the militia structurally, but have the time to dedicate to air, armor, artillery, and the like. National Military Logistics Corps are the only federally organized force here, basically a standing supply branch, with no weapons heavier than organic AA. This is very different from how any modern military operates, and I do not know if it can be made to work. But it’s an interesting thought.
Dreams of The Future 2nd Amendment 